I had this e-mail exchange with a friend. Here's the context: he sent around a workout that is supposed to ensure you hit a particular goal time in a 10K -- i.e., if you can complete the 8 week program, hitting the right times, you'll get the corresponding 10K result. The final week's workout is 3 x 2 miles at your goal pace, with a 5' easy jog in between. For what it's worth, I believe it when the crafter says this particular program will certainly do the trick.
My response:
There’s a certain unpleasantness to the realization that it is possible to structure a plan that will ensure a result with near certainty. Once you’ve hit the target workouts prescribing that you will run (hypothetically) a 38’ 10K, is there any pleasure in actually doing so? I’m not a little let down, having been excited about my Cherry Blossom result, to learn that it’s within 30 seconds of what Jack Daniels and Don McMillan would have predicted on the basis of my National Half performance, which is, in turn, nearly exactly what they would have predicted on the basis of my workouts in the previous months.
At the marathon distance, at least for amateurs, the uncontrollable variables (e.g., wind) start to overwhelm the controllable variables, so there’s still the possibility of surprise.
It doesn’t get better for the elites, who may be running to compete rather than for personal bests. Ryan Hall can probably tell you within a minute how fast he will run Boston this year (I think he’s running). He thus knows that if nobody else runs faster than that, he will win, and if somebody else does run faster, he will lose.
D__'s rejoinder:
I'd be perfectly content with the lack of surprise associated with hitting the marathon time that my 10-mile times predict. Even with my 2-minute siesta in [a recent race], my performance suggests that I should be running a 3:02 marathon. If my gut had behaved, my predicted time woulda likely been 2:57 or so.
Who's right?
For me, "Who's right?" is contingent upon my own current goals. Take my upcoming April 30 half, for example. Two years ago, I trained haphazardly but reasonably well for the same race, and ended up dropping my goal time from "break two hours" to "break 1:50" over the course of my training. I finished in 1:50:10, and vowed to come back stronger next year. Last year I trained less haphazardly and more intensely, but race day started at 67 degrees and 98% relative humidity and got worse from there; my goal was 1:45; I bonked and ran a 1:52:20. This year, I am bound and determined to break 1:45. I would be more than willing to put up with soul-sucking determinism in my training program if it nets me that time.
ReplyDeleteBut if I were not training for a specific MILESTONE time, I think Max's perspective would resonate a bit more.