One of my favorite bloggers suggests (half tongue-in-cheek, I think, and quoting another) the best athlete in the world is approximately twice as good as the average Joe or Jane.
http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2010/09/the_divide_by_2.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+InfectiousGreed+%28Paul+Kedrosky%27s+Infectious+Greed%29
He acknowledges it fails, and in fact, his examples show it fails as much or more than it holds. Think of golf: if Tiger can shoot 72 on a given course, I'm pretty sure I can shoot 144.
I think the comparison works quite well in running. For the marathon, 2:04 maps to 4:08, probably a good "average Joe" number. For the 10K, 27:01 (on road) maps to 54:02; same. 5k, 12:37 maps to 25:14.
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